#142 Cherry Blossom Forecast (1)

2025 season outlook and how to align with peak time of full bloom.

Time flies, and March has finally arrived. From the end of this month through the next, we will start to receive news about the blooming of the cherry blossoms. And those who have booked your flights more than half a year in advance for the cherry blossoms are probably anxious for information on the timing of the blooming of the cherry blossoms. This week, I would like to summarize the latest cherry blossom forecast for spring 2025 and share what to do if the bloom time differs from what you expect. Although several weather organizations have issued estimates for the cherry blossoms, I will base mine on information from the JWA, Japan Weather Association, which has a more extended history of providing such information.

There is a row of cherry trees along the left bank of the middle reaches of the Tama River in Fussa City. It is one of my favorite places.

Overview of Cherry Blossom Bloom Forecasts

According to the latest forecast by the Japan Weather Association, cherry blossoms in 2025 are expected to be generally normal in western and eastern Japan and normal or early in northern Japan. The first blossoms are expected to appear in Tokyo on March 22, Fukuoka on March 23, Nagoya on March 25, and Osaka on March 27.

Temperatures in November, which are seen to affect the dormancy of cherry blossom buds, were relatively high in western Japan, but from December to January, the inflow of cold air exposed cherry blossom buds to low temperatures, so the effect on "dormancy breakthrough" is expected to be small. From western to eastern Japan, February was frequently affected by strong cold air; in March, temperatures are expected to remain at or above normal, and blooming is expected to be generally on par with normal, although some areas in western Japan will bloom later than usual in some places.

The following is the forecast for blooming in major cities. About half a century ago, as a child, cherry blossoms bloomed at the same time as the school started in early April, so it is a typical April event. Still, in recent years, perhaps due to global warming, it has often been in late March.

Data Quoted from JWA HP

With the cherry blossoms blooming earlier and the timing of the blooms shifting slightly each year, it is becoming increasingly difficult to time your visit to Japan for the cherry blossoms to be in full bloom.

Starting the Bloom to Full Bloom

Along with the blooming period, the duration period is also important. The cycle of cherry blossoms from bud to full bloom and then to fall is generally from 7 to 10 days, and the factor that determines this period is the temperature transition.

600 Degrees Celsius

The reason for this rule is beyond the scope of this article. Still, it states that cherry blossoms bloom when the cumulative total of the maximum daily temperatures from February 1 exceeds 600 degrees Celsius. Even an amateur can easily calculate this law, so those interested should try it. The higher the temperature after February 1, the earlier the flowering will occur.

7 Days to 10 Days

Let us return to the cycle from bloom to fall, which means the blossoms are full bloom between 7 and 10 days after bloom. Therefore, once the blooming information is released in your area, the cherry trees will fully bloom one week later, which means the blooming peak is about a week later. However, cherry trees are living, and if low temperatures continue after blooming, it may take some time before they fully bloom. On the other hand, if the temperature is too high after the blooming, the cherry trees may fully bloom earlier than expected, so it is essential to collect information.

Fall of Petals

Another point is the timing of the cherry blossoms fall. Cherry blossoms are very susceptible to wind and rain. A sign that cherry blossom petals are about to fall is the color of the blossom’s center. After blooming, the petals are light reddish, but when they are about to fall, the center of the flower turns reddish. When the petals are in this state, it is best to assume that the timing of the petal fall is near.

When the center of the petal turns red, it is a sign that it is about to fall.

Sakura Fubuki

In Japan, there is an expression initially called "Sakura Fubuki," which is cherished as an expression of the transient nature of cherry blossoms, which last only for a short period.

"Sakura Fubuki" is an expression that describes the petals of cherry blossoms in full bloom falling all at once like a snowstorm, and I love the sight of cherry petals falling all at once after a week of bloom.

Kawazu Cherry Blossoms

Many of you may be planning your visit to Japan before late March. Kawazu-cho on the Izu Peninsula, near Tokyo, has a special type of cherry blossom called kawazu-zakura, which blooms a month before the blooming of flowers in Tokyo. At first, the blossoms are pale, but as they reach full bloom, the color darkens, and the flowering season is as long as one month. The flowers bloomed later this year than usual; now is the right time to see them. A live camera feed is available during daytime hours. Now you can see the condition of cherry trees by live camera.

Access

2.5 hours from Tokyo by limited express train. You can make a day trip if you want, but since the area has hot springs and various attractions, it is better to make an overnight itinerary.

The straight distance from Tokyo to Kawazu is about 210 km.

How to Adjust for Bloom and Visit Timing

If the cherry blossoms bloom much earlier than the time of your visit, there are still ways to compensate. Cherry blossoms bloom slowly northward from the south of the Japanese archipelago, so you can enjoy cherry blossoms anywhere in Japan for almost two months this year, starting from March 22 in Tokyo to May 10 in Kushiro, Hokkaido, at the latest. In other words, you can enjoy the cherry blossoms if you go to a place where the blossoms are in bloom at the time of your visit. In other words, you can visit northern Japan, such as Tohoku and Hokkaido. There are many unique places, especially in the Tohoku region and Hakodate, so I will leave the individual cherry blossom viewing spots for another time.

Finally

There are many famous cherry blossom viewing spots in the Tama area where I live, and there is a famous row of cherry trees in my neighborhood. As is the case every year, it is always a bittersweet time of year when the cherry blossoms are in full bloom until they start to fall. At this time of year, we do not have blue skies every day, and at any moment, rain and strong winds may cause the petals to fall off the trees. In this sense, it is the most worrisome season of the year.

It should not be so worrying since cherry blossoms always bloom at different times of the year, but their short life makes us think so. First, I pray that this year's cherry blossom season will be blessed with fine weather that is kind to cherry blossoms. Everyone visiting Japan this spring can enjoy the cherry blossoms to the fullest.