#68 Autumn leaves update 2023
We can expect the regular autumn leaves despite the severe heatwaves.
I would have hoped that a series of typhoons would have brought some respite from the heat wave, but instead, the temperature has risen again, and I wonder when I will be able to feel the first signs of autumn in Tokyo. The number of foreign visitors to Japan continues to recover, and according to the JNTO, the number of travelers to Japan, excluding those from China, where travel restrictions have been in place, has already exceeded the pre-pandemic level of 2019. I have experienced firsthand the overflow of international travelers in many places when I walk around Tokyo.
Those who are planning to visit Japan this fall for the autumn leaves have perhaps already purchased your airline tickets, but the question of where to go to see the autumn leaves at what stage during your stay is probably a high-priority issue for you. This week, I would like to share some preliminary information on autumn leaves. Since there is still more than a month before the actual autumn leaves season, the outlook may change depending on the weather, but I hope it will be some of your help.
Overview of this season
According to the latest forecast by Weather News, Japan's leading weather service, this year's autumn leaves will be characterized as follows. (Unfortunately, they don’t have an English site, so please use the translation function.)
High temperatures in summer delayed coloration in some areas, but the season is expected to be normal in a wide area.
High temperatures and light rain in Tohoku and Hokuriku will affect autumn leave conditions.
Radiative cooling on sunny days will accelerate leaf coloration.
Weather News also added that the average temperatures this autumn will be higher throughout the country through November, but with more sunny days, mainly in eastern and western Japan, the morning and evening temperatures will be lower due to radiative cooling. Temperatures are expected to drop enough to allow the leaves to change colors. Many areas are expected to see the autumn leaves this year on average.
I thought that all record-breaking high temperatures may delay the peak time of the autumn leaves, but it seems that I should prepare like usual year. There are two times of the year that I keep in mind when I want to enjoy the autumn leaves: in late October, when the nearby mountains are between 1,500 and 2,000 meters high, and in late November or early December when the ginkgo trees in Tokyo turn yellow.
Conditions for brilliant autumn leaves
The following are the minimum conditions for the beautiful autumn leaves scientifically. The recent extreme weather will do nothing more than harm.
Adequate sunlight during the growing season: It helps trees produce chlorophyll, the green pigment in leaves.
Cool nighttime temperatures: Cooler nights in the autumn trigger the breakdown of chlorophyll, revealing the vibrant reds, oranges, and yellows in the leaves.
Sufficient moisture: Trees need a consistent supply of water throughout the year for healthy leaf development.
Forecast
The following is a brief chart based on the information by Weather News, which shows the ideal timing of autumn leaves for major tourist sites in Japan. Please keep in mind that I expect not only lots of foreign tourists but massive Japanese tourists at major tourist attractions.
When national holidays coincide with weekends, tourist attractions in various regions are crowded with large numbers of Japanese people.
What to come
The Japan Weather Association, which is said to be the most trusted agency in Japan, is expected to release its first forecast by the end of this month, and information on the best time to see autumn leaves is going to be out on various websites. I will post on Note on Substack if I find something relevant. Generally, autumn leaves are not as difficult as cherry blossoms from the point of choosing at its best. I hope you will enjoy the beautiful Japanese autumn. I will be happy to answer your question regarding this point.
I don’t know how often I will be able to go out for autumn leaves this year. But one of my top listed places is Mt Mizugaki which is in the west of Tokyo. If you are interested, please visit my previous post #29 Mt Mizugaki, a unique spectacular place.