To those of you waiting for my newsletter last weekend, I sincerely apologize for not getting it on time. I was on a long vacation, which delayed my writing for this week. This time, I was on the other side of the planet from Japan for the first time in six years. I hope to have another opportunity to tell you about this trip some other time.
Those visiting Japan may have been surprised by the heavy snowfall that hit Tokyo and other parts of the metropolitan area on Monday night and Tuesday morning. Winters in the Tokyo metropolitan area are usually arid, with cold, northerly winds blowing day after day, but sometimes, we get hit with heavy snowfalls if we are unlucky. As a child, I happily played outside when it snowed, but this snow was nothing but trouble for me and perhaps for travelers. Although the probability is low, I would like to explain the mechanism of heavy snowfall in Tokyo during the winter and how to deal with it.
When a heavy snow warning-level forecast is issued for the Tokyo metropolitan area, the media, including television, make a big splash at the top of the national news. Meteorologists urge viewers to be alert with detailed forecast maps as if the entire country is about to be hit by heavy snow. It seems natural that tourists from overseas would think they are making too much noise. However, there is a reason for the exaggerated coverage.
There are many so-called heavy snowfall areas on the Sea of Japan coast where snowfall exceeds 3 meters in winter. The mountainous area on the Sea of Japan coast from Aomori to Nagano Prefecture is a heavy snowfall area. People got used to snow in heavy snowfall areas with "snow-melting pipes" that use groundwater to melt snow on roads, shovels for snow removal, and studless tires on all cars. However, in the Tokyo metropolitan area, people are not accustomed to snow, and their vehicles slip on summer tires, causing many people to fall over on the roads. And public transportation is paralyzed, bringing the metropolis's infrastructure to a standstill.
The media calls for people to return home early, rush hour accelerates, and long lines form at bus stops in terminal stations. Those with jobs requiring them to go to the office have no choice but to go home early, but now that teleworking has taken root, many people do not need to go to work. But there are still people who want to go to work in Japan. For this reason, there is chaos when the Tokyo metropolitan area is hit by heavy snowfall. However, travelers staying in central Tokyo will be directly affected by this.
It may sound technical, but when does heavy snowfall in Tokyo? The key word is "South Coast Low(Please use translation function)," which passes over the Pacific Ocean side of the southern part of the Japanese archipelago. Depending on the distance between the South Coast Low and the land and the accompanying cold air from the north, the Tokyo metropolitan area may experience snow or rain. The slight difference of one degree in temperature can wreak havoc on the metro area's infrastructure. This one-degree difference in temperature is very troubling to the weather authorities who issue the forecasts.
The latest population of Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama, and Chiba prefectures is about 36 million, or about 30% of Japan's total population, so the influence of such weather forecasts is immeasurable. There was once a time when the two central weather authorities' forecasts were sharply divided between rain and snow as a south coast low-pressure system approached. In this case, it was snow, and the weather authority that missed the forecast lost all face. It is unclear if this was the trigger, but I believe the estimates associated with the South Coastal Low became "conservative" (i.e., snow-oriented).
Although the possibility of encountering heavy snowfall during your visit to Tokyo is only several times per season, it is essential to have a perspective on detecting and responding to such a situation. I am sure everyone checks the weather daily at various weather sites. If you expect Tokyo area snow, you should suspect the approach of a south coast low-pressure system and look at the weather map first.
If you find the South Coast Low approaching, here is what you should do.
Could you check the timing and area of snowfall and snow accumulation forecast?
Review outdoor sightseeing plans for the following day if a "heavy snow warning" is issued.
Please don’t go out the following day and switch to activities near your lodgings.
Various warnings from the Japan Meteorological Agency can be found at this link.
The transportation infrastructure may be disrupted depending on the amount of snow. However, these conditions often calm down within a day, so please enjoy your stay by taking advantage of the time when the snowfall is most severe. The heavy snowfall this time resulted in as much as 7 cm of snow in central Tokyo, but the overnight rain in urban areas has almost completely melted the snow on the streets. On the following day, the 6th, public transportation was almost back to normal; although some expressways were temporarily closed, the Shinkansen was running on time, and conventional lines, except some lines, were running with some delays. However, one thing to remember is that once the snow melts, it freezes and makes the road surfaces very slippery. There are many places where the snow has not been adequately removed, so please be very careful at night.
Lastly, winter snowfall in the Tokyo metropolitan area often turns into something other than heavy snowfall. Still, heavy snowfall is possible depending on the course of a south coast low-pressure system and cold air conditions. As a Tokyo metropolitan area resident, I hope there will be no more heavy snowfall this winter.