#88 Cherry Blossoms Update
The first bloom is March 18 in Fukuoka and expected March 20 in Tokyo(By JWA)
The Kanto region was hit by heavy snowfall last week, and the cold weather is continuing in Japan. However, only a month and a half remain before the "cherry blossoms," the highlight of spring tourism in Japan, bloom. By the end of March, we should receive reports of cherry blossoms blooming from most of Japan except Hokkaido.
Many people may have decided on the length of their visit to Japan but are still trying to determine where in Japan to visit, depending on the cherry blossom forecast. The timing of the bloom is still subject to change. The bloom forecasts issued by the meteorological authorities are still subject to change and may deviate significantly from the expected timing. Meteorological authorities will update through March, so please look at the information I will send you later as a reference only.
Recently, cherry blossoms in the Tokyo metropolitan area have bloomed earlier each year, often in late March. In elementary school, I remember taking commemorative photos under the cherry blossoms in full bloom at the entrance ceremony in early April, which coincided with the blooming of the cherry trees. Not only tourists from overseas but also Japanese people have long considered cherry blossoms a symbolic flower of spring, and the fleeting nature and pale pink color of the blossoms, which fall within a week or so after they are in full bloom, probably appeal to people's hearts. There is a famous row of cherry trees in the western suburbs of Tokyo, where I live. I, too, cannot wait for the cherry blossoms to bloom in March.
Now, what is the forecast for the cherry blossom bloom in 2024? The following is an English translation of the cherry blossom forecast released by the Japan Meteorological Association on January 31.
This year's cherry blossoms will bloom earlier than usual in many parts of Japan. This year's cherry blossoms are expected to start in Fukuoka and Kochi on March 19, bloom in Kumamoto and Tokyo on March 20, Hiroshima and Nagoya on March 21, and bloom over a wide area from Kyushu to Hokuriku by the end of March.
In April, the cherry blossom front would move northward to the Tohoku region, blooming in Sendai on April 2 and Aomori on April 19, reaching Hokkaido in late April.
Temperatures during December and January tended to be warm throughout the country due to a period of weak, cold airflow. Still, a cold wave in late December brought temperatures well below average. That's why the dormancy break of cherry blossom buds is not expected to be significantly affected.
Let me explain a little about the term "dormancy breakthrough," which is a necessary term related to the growth of cherry blossom buds. Cherry buds go dormant and stop growing before winter. Then, they wake up again in the harsh cold of winter and rise again in the warmth of spring. In other words, a certain cold period during the winter is necessary to hasten the blooming of cherry blossoms.
To quote the explanation of the Japan Weather Association's description of the dormancy breakthrough, translated into English.
Except for island areas, taking 2020 as an example, Kagoshima has the highest average temperature in both February and March, so Kagoshima should have been the first to bloom. You might think so, but in the spring of 2020, the earliest bloom was not in Kagoshima but in Tokyo, and Kagoshima's cherry blossoms only bloomed more than two weeks after Tokyo's bloom.
Comparing the January temperatures in the two cities, the average minimum temperature in Tokyo in January 2020 was 3.7°C, while in Kagoshima, it was 7.5°C. 7.5°C is about the lowest temperature in Tokyo in early April. This comparison makes it understandable that "breaking dormancy" does not work.
Predicting the timing of cherry blossom blooming is more complicated as it is determined by its location in the south or high temperatures. This year's bloom will be a little later than last year's, which was remarkably early, but still a few days or even a week earlier than usual. The most critical period from bloom to full bloom is 7 to 10 days, after which the blossoms begin to fall within 3 to 5 days. First, I would like you to calculate the time of full bloom by working backward from the blooming time of the place you plan to visit.
The Japan Weather Association has set the second bloom forecast for February 28. However, since several meteorological organizations release estimates at different times, comparing the data with those released by organizations such as the Japan Meteorological Corporation and Weathernews is advisable. The Japan Meteorological Corporation has already released its third forecast.
If you are staying long and want to see cherry blossoms in full bloom at your desired location, checking the blooming information before planning your visit is a good idea. As I mentioned, it takes one week to ten days for the cherry blossoms to fully bloom.
I hope the weather stays good during the cherry blossom season this year and you can enjoy these flowers for as long as possible.