#91 Cherry Blossom Update II
How to maximize your chance to see the full bloom of cherry blossoms, and tips to know the signs of petal fall.
March has finally come. In Tokyo, plum blossoms, which herald the arrival of the first spring, bloomed in many places. Later this month, information on cherry blossoms' blooming will come from various locations. JWA(Japan Weather Association) released Cherry Blossom information in late January, and JWA released the newest information (second report) on February 28. In Tokyo, the weather has returned to average temperatures after a series of cold days over the past week, and JWA expects Tokyo and Kochi to lead the way, blooming on March 21. Although not significantly different from the forecast a month ago, many areas in eastern and northern Japan are expected to bloom earlier than usual.
You may have waited for this bloom forecast to confirm your final itinerary. I’d like to present what action should be taken by travelers who wish to prioritize cherry blossoms.
First, I always use the Japan Weather Association (JWA) as my reference because it is a government-affiliated weather service with a long history, despite the emergence of privately owned weather companies in recent years. Although JWA is a government-affiliated organization, its forecasts are often conservative, but I would say it is highly reliable.
The following is a summary of the bloom forecast announced by JWA on February 28.
Blooming time will be on average or earlier than usual nationwide.
Blooming tends to be earlier than average in eastern and northern Japan.
Tokyo, Nagoya, Gifu, and Kochi are the first areas to bloom on 3/21.
Blooming in Osaka will be on 3/23.
Blooming will occur over a wide area from Kyushu to Hokuriku by the end of March.
Flowering is expected in Hokkaido in late April and Sapporo on 4/25.
The table below summarizes the bloom forecasts for the major cities.
The following is a quote from JWA's analysis of the bloom forecast, translated into English.
Temperatures during the winter (December-February) were above average throughout the country, with high temperatures in December-January likely delaying dormancy in warmer areas. In contrast, high February temperatures may have accelerated cherry tree blooming in many places.
From now on, temperatures will be lower than usual in many areas in early March, although the temperatures will be repeatedly warm and cold. However, mid to late March temperatures are to be average or above normal. As a result, cherry blossom buds will grow well, and blooming will be normal or earlier than usual throughout the country.
I am sure many readers understand that cherry blossoms bloom and reach full bloom in a flash, are synonymous with ephemeral flowers, and that their transience symbolizes Japan's "wabi-sabi" culture. Now, I would like to explain the timeline of cherry blossoms until they fall.
Weathernews, a private weather company, has compiled an interesting article. This article is based on a book titled "The Science of Cherry Blossoms" written by Toshio Katsuki, a Japanese agronomist specializing in forest science. The principal stages of cherry blossoms are as follows:
Blooming: 5 to 6 flowers in one tree.
Full Blooms: More than 80% of the flowers bloom.
The period from blooming to full bloom is approximately 7 to 10 days, and the further north you go, the shorter this period becomes. In other words, northern Japan has a shorter flowering period, making it more difficult to time it right. In other words, flowers concentrate in a short period. On the other hand, the petals of cherry blossoms are very susceptible to rain and wind, and rain shortens the life of cherry blossoms so much that there are words such as "sakura nagashi"(flow of cherry blossoms) and "sakura ame" (cherry blossom shower). However, the rain enhances the fragility of the cherry blossoms, and Japanese people feel a delicate sadness in this aesthetic sense.
I also learned for the first time while writing this article that there is a sign before the cherry blossoms fall. As the flower is about to fall, the petals and the bases of stamens and pistils (the center of the flower) turn red. This change is a sign that the cherry blossoms are beginning to fall.
In other words, you can tell how long you can enjoy the flowers at a given location by looking at the color of the flowers as well as counting backward in time from blooming. I also have to keep my eyes on the weather forecast every day to see what the rain and winds will do in the state of five-minute blooms to full bloom. When the temperature is high, the blooming of cherry blossoms visibly changes drastically in a single day.
Thus, if you want to see the cherry blossoms in full bloom, you will have to make use of a variety of information: you will need to get the latest information from JWA and Weathernews by translating their Japanese websites into English, and you will also need to check the actual conditions on live cameras at the site. Of course, we must check the weather forecast for the next few days to ensure no solid winds or rain. Given the above, enjoying the cherry blossoms in full bloom under a blue sky with no wind may depend on your luck.
My hometown has a beautiful row of cherry trees, one of Tokyo's best cherry blossom viewing spots. As one of the cherry blossom enthusiasts, I try to visit the rows of cherry trees as much as possible during the week, from when the cherry trees are in half-bloom to when they are in full bloom, and enjoy the changes in the cherry blossoms as long as I can.
JWA will update the cherry blossom forecast information every Wednesday until April 24, except for Tuesday, March 19. Unfortunately, the English site is slow to update, so it is best to use the Japanese page for automatic translation.
It is challenging to know exactly when the cherry blossoms bloom. However, taking some Instagram photos with a little effort should be possible. I wish you all good luck and hope the rain and wind will not cause the cherry blossoms to fall easily this spring.
I would love to hear about your planned cherry blossom viewing trips.
I love that the blossoms are most beautiful just before the end, like a princess at her fullest beauty suddenly fallen: so wabi-sabi.